Square Money and Smart Money Explained - Sharp Bettors vs the Public

Updated: September 27, 2026

One of the biggest factors to consider when betting on sports is where the money is coming from in terms of line movement. In the world of sports betting, there are basically two main groups that move the lines.

There are -sharp- bettors, also known as -wiseguys-, who are professional level bettors who bet large amounts and move the lines due to their reputation and past winnings. The other part is the betting public, also known as -squares-.

These two groups could not be further apart in terms of betting acumen, but they both move the lines with betting action.

Of course, the smart money is usually the side that has the most influence on line movement for fairly obvious reasons. Their bets simply carry a lot more weight than the public's because they are a real threat to cut into the bookmaker's bottom line.

Betting Against The Public

Many players adhere to the "bet against the house" betting system. This contrarian method of betting isn't hard to understand. Bettors typically bet against the crowd when they are heavily invested in a particular side or total. Sports betting can be quite unpredictable.

What is deeply invested? Well, some might consider 60% of the crowd's bets on a side or total to be public. However, it is believed that bettors should aim for around 70% of all betting activity on a particular market to qualify it as a public bet. There are often 80% majorities on games in various sports, so there is no shortage of these scenarios.

Avoiding public bets clearly has its advantages, especially when considering the reverse line movement. This is when the crowd is heavily invested in one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. This is often due to precise betting on the other side, which bookmakers understandably rely on more than the general public. Betting trends make for interesting analysis.

However, it is important to understand that sportsbooks do not take the public's betting trends into account when setting their lines. They are much more susceptible to sharp bettors trying to trick the crowd into accepting a weak line. Their priority is to set accurate lines.

Randomly betting against the crowd when they are heavily invested in a particular side or total is not a guaranteed path to profit. In fact, it's downright risky to a bettor's bankroll. Considering the public's betting habits in your analysis and generally staying away from taking too many overs or favorites are certainly factors that will help you as a sports bettor, but randomly betting against them at every opportunity is not a profitable strategy to beat the sportsbooks.

Following The Smart Money

Following the smart money is a much more profitable strategy than blindly betting against the crowd. In some cases, this means fading the public, but when you talk about following the smart money, the first thing that should come to mind is steam betting.

A steam move is a drastic change in odds in a particular betting market caused by heavy betting action. For example, if most sportsbooks have the Detroit Lions at -3 against the visiting Vikings and the line suddenly moves to Detroit -4 at one or more prominent sportsbooks, this is likely a steam move.

A tactic used by many bettors is to closely watch the odds of the entire betting market and bet the affected line at sportsbooks that have not yet moved their lines. This is known as -steam betting- or -chasing steam.-

In the example above, this would mean betting the Lions -3. Unlike fading the crowd, steam betting offers much more in terms of profitability and is quite easy if you know which sportsbooks are sharp enough to start market moves.

Sportsbooks frown on steam players and will often look to limit players who bet steam moves successfully. For one thing, bettors are beating the market on a price that sharp bettors have hammered as one of their favorites of the day.

Aside from getting an excellent price on your bet after a market move, you put the sportsbook in a compromising position. If they do not move the line to -4, they will become a target for sharp bettors across the web, but they will also lose the ability to offset the action of steam bettors who took the line at -3.

Steam betting is not always as simple as watching the betting market and acting quickly before sportsbooks move their lines, but it can be. Sharp bettors often bet heavily on one side to move the line in their favor, and then bet even more heavily on the other side once they get the move they want.

Chasing steam can be difficult even if you spot a move accurately. Bettors do not have a matter of minutes to act before the vast majority of sportsbooks change their odds, they usually have a matter of seconds.

As mentioned above, steam betting is one of the quickest ways to max out your account at an online sportsbook. However, when your account is frozen, it is almost always the case that you have used the sportsbook for several thousand dollars (at least) before this happens. Provided you get paid, you can move on to another sportsbook.

One area that bettors need to be careful with when it comes to steam betting is betting at lesser known sportsbooks or those with a so-so or poor reputation. Some of these sportsbooks have clauses in their terms and conditions stating that they do not accept syndicate or professional play.

Steam betting falls under these parameters at many of these sites, and bettors may be at risk of not being paid at some unscrupulous sites if their winnings come from chasing steam. These terms are predatory, but it is something bettors should consider before betting steam at certain bookmakers.